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Climate Change in Asia,
Middle East and I.R. of Iran
Author:
Dr. Mostafa Jafari
Academic staff of RIFR and Lead Author of IPCC/AR4
mostafajafari@libero.it
mostafajafari@rifr-ac-.ir
CV
Presented in the 1st international conference on
"Climate Change & Dendrochronology in Caspian Ecosystems" 20
-21 May 2008, Caspian Ecosystems Research Institute, Sari.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been
established by WMO and UNEP to consider scientific
dimensions of climate changes.
The
IPCC has three Working Groups and a Task Force: Working
Group 1: The Physical Science Basis; Working Group 2:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Working Group 3:
Mitigation of Climate Change; and The Task Force on National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories is responsible for the IPCC
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme.
Around
500 lead authors, supported by hundreds of other
contributors, are involved in drafting the IPCC 4th
Assessment Report (AR4). Review is an essential element in
the preparation of IPCC Reports to ensure that they
represent the latest scientific, technical and
socio-economic findings and are as comprehensive as
possible. IPCC reported the work of all three working groups
and synthesis report in the current year (2007). Reports
cover various subject and different geographical regions.
Climate
change in Asia, 2007, is presented in working two' report
and included an introduction and 20 chapters. This is the
result of six year of heavy works by all involved
scientists, researches and experts all over the world.
As lead
author in Asia chapter and reviewer of other chapters, I
evaluate AR4, a precise report. In preparation of the
report, the published peer review papers and scientific
research outcomes were the base with consideration of
government comments.
In
Central Asia and Middle East, inadequate published papers
were clear. It is possible to use climactic projections for
the regions in the Central and East Asia tables.
Some sectors will be more
affected than others. Some ecosystems Terrestrial: tundra,
boreal forest, mountain, Mediterranean-type ecosystems;
along coasts: mangroves and salt marshes; and In oceans:
coral reefs and the sea ice biome. Low-lying coastal regions
due to the threat of sea- level rise and increased
occurrence of extreme weather events. Water resources are in
critical situation in mid-latitudes and the dry tropics due
to decreases of %10 to 30% in rainfall and higher rates of
evapotranspiration. Agriculture in low-latitude regions due
to reduced water availability. Human health will face with
dangerous condition in areas with low adaptive capacity.
Climate change in Asia,
Middle East and I.R. of Iran may effect on sustainable
development approaches.
As
reported in TAR/ IPCC, for non-Annex I, oil-producing
countries the knock-on effects could include losses of
between 13% and 25% of projected oil revenues.
Water
crisis may cause 30% reduction in cereals production in
north western of Iran.
The
report of Asia chapter can be downloading at the () and
should be cited as:
Cruz,
R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa,
Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007: Asia.
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 469-506.
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